Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management

Symphony beräknar den kumulativa, sammanlagda, miljöpåverkan i havet. Beräkningarna baseras på en transparent vetenskaplig metod som framförallt baseras på nationellt täckande kartor över ekologiska värden och belastningar från mänskliga verksamheter.

Genom Symphony kan havsplanernas effekt på miljöpåverkan bedömas och resultatet påverkar havsplanernas utformning. Denna rapport är framtagen för havsplaneringens samrådsskede 2018.

Mycket nyttigt i bilagorna

Du kan tända och släcka lager i den första kartan i bilaga 1 och 2 för att utforska materialet. Då behöver du en pdf-läsare som stödjer den funktionen, till exempel Adobe Reader eller Foxit Reader.

Till rapporten hör flera bilagor

• Metadata visar båda kartorna från de olika påverkanslagerna och beskriver hur de data som påverkanslagerna representerar har tagits fram och skalats.
• Gröna kartan visar alla ekologiska värden som ligger till grund för kartorna.
• Känslighetsmatrisen visar hur de ekologiska värdena påverkas av belastningarna.
• Nuläget utan havsplan (bilagor 4 abc)
• Nuläget med havsplan, alltså havsplanens påverkan om den hade implementerats direkt (bilagor 5 abc)
• Utblick på hur miljöpåverkan utvecklats till år 2030 utan havsplan (bilagor 6 abc)

Symphony is a model-based assessment method developed to support ecosystem-based marine spatial planning, MSP, in Sweden. By calculating cumulative impact from human activities on the marine environment, planners are informed of the baseline conditions and the potential effect various planning options may have on the cumulative impact in different areas. When integrated into the planning process, Symphony facilitates MSP that supports sustainable development.  The main model constituents are multiple maps of ecosystem components, pressures from human activities and emissions, and a sensitivity matrix describing how each ecosystem component responds to specific pressures. The outcome includes both maps illustrating the cumulative impact and complementary data, for instance specifying the impact from each pressure in any given area. The method is based on the scientific contribution by Halpern et al. (2008) and succeeding works (e.g. by Helcom). Unlike previous applications, Symphony allows scenario-based evaluations of different planning options. This report focuses on the methodology, data and assumptions used. Several governmental bodies, research institutions and consultancies have contributed to the development of Symphony during 2015–2018. Although Symphony has been used in the Swedish MSP process since 2017, the method and data are being continuously refined. Given the large scope and the limited knowledge of marine habitat distributions, the accumulated uncertainties are substantial. All interpretation of results should be cautious and conditioned on a respect for method limitations.  Baseline results indicate that coastal areas and some specific offshore locations are subject to particularly high environmental impact while other areas are much less affected. From a cumulative perspective, bottom trawl fisheries, eutrophication, pollution and shipping are main contributing sources in the Swedish Skagerrak and Kattegat. In the Baltic Sea and the Bothnian Bay, eutrophication and pollution are dominant contributing sources, followed by shipping (in these analyses, shipping air emissions are not included). When climate change pressures are added, with high degree of uncertainty, the cumulative impact may increase 50-100%. Scenario-based analyses of MSP drafts indicate that, in these cases, overall cumulative impacts do not increase or decrease substantially, even when the plan drafts include additional offshore wind power and marine sand extraction. But redistribution of environmental impacts is evident, with some areas being more heavily affected and other areas being relieved from impact. The analyses include some fishing redistribution but no decrease of fishing effort and no changes of current shipping routes. Continued use and development of Symphony will improve the integration of environmental consideration in planning, support the national and international consultation process, and may be of value for broader international collaboration on ecosystem-based MSP. Given correctly formatted robust data and adapted assumptions, the Symphony method can provide valuable analyses for MSP in any context. In particular, alignment with the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive indicators may strengthen the approach in the European context.